Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, in what the Associated Press called "the most consequential election in the country's history." The final surveys show former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, but neither camp close to a governing majority.
The vote fills all 120 seats in the Knesset, and 61 are needed to form a government. A party needs 3.25% of the national vote to win any seats, and official results are due to be confirmed on November 4, according to Wikipedia's overview of the race. The outgoing Knesset formally dissolved on July 17.
What the last polls show
The Jerusalem Post's roundup of the final polls, published Sunday, put Yashar first in every survey it cited. Averaged across four polls, Yashar had 22 seats, Likud 19.75 and Naftali Bennett's list 14.5. Channel 12 had Yashar at 23, Likud at 21 and Bennett at 15.
The bloc math is tighter than the party numbers suggest. The same average gave the opposition parties 54 seats and Netanyahu's bloc 49.5, leaving both short of 61. Arab parties combined for about 14 seats in two of the polls. Several small lists sit near the threshold, including the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha and former general Ofer Winter's People of Israel. Whether they get in could decide who governs.
A campaign that ended in court filings
The final weekend was about the war as much as the ballot. Thousands of people rallied in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu, with Eisenkot in the crowd, AP reported. Speakers demanded a commission of inquiry into the security failures before the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, an inquiry AP said Netanyahu has refused. AP noted that all hostages or their remains have now been returned, though Netanyahu has been accused of delaying deals that could have freed them sooner.
On Sunday, Netanyahu summoned Police Commissioner Danny Levy to a meeting with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on election integrity, without inviting the opposition, The Times of Israel reported. Likud said the meeting was a follow-up on security threats and not about the election. Yashar petitioned to cancel it and said Netanyahu expects to lose.
Justice Noam Sohlberg, who chairs the Central Elections Committee, rejected the petition but warned politicians not to interfere in the election, and the attorney general said there was no justification for the meeting. At a rally, Eisenkot warned that Netanyahu would "stop at nothing" to stay in power.
Security on election day
The military is on its highest state of alert. The Times of Israel reported that Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir canceled leave, that Palestinian workers with permits are barred from West Bank settlements on Sunday and Monday, and that land crossings close on election day. Netanyahu dismissed reports that Zamir had resisted a military action against Iran ordered by the prime minister, calling them "nonsense." Opposition leaders condemned the report.
Washington is watching too. President Trump said he would not strike Iran again before the November 3 midterm elections in the United States, AP reported, while declining to say what he would do after that. "There's a possibility I will," he said, while also pointing to a possible deal.
Whoever wins the most seats, coalition talks come next, and they can take weeks. For the human story behind this campaign, read our report from three years after October 7.
Two Taps News stories summarize reporting and the analysis discussed on Two Taps and Friends. They are not legal advice. Read our standards.
