Israel's election does not end when the polls close at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, October 27. Under Israeli law, the vote starts a process of consultations and coalition talks that can run for weeks, and in a deadlock can lead to another election.
Final pre-election television polls left both main blocs short of a majority. An average of Channel 11, 12 and 13 polls as of Friday gave the bloc led by opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot 54 seats and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc 50, Al Jazeera reported, citing Haaretz. A government needs the support of 61 of the Knesset's 120 members. Exit polls give only a first picture, and the final count can differ.
Step one: the count
Seats are allocated by nationwide proportional representation, so voters choose a party list rather than a candidate. A party needs at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset, and about a dozen parties were thought to have a chance of crossing that line, according to Al Jazeera. A party that falls just below the threshold wastes its votes, which is why small parties can change the bloc arithmetic on election night.
Al Jazeera reported that a final tally is expected by Friday and that official results are due on November 4.
Step two: the president's choice
Israel's president does not simply hand the job to the largest party. President Isaac Herzog will ask each party whom it recommends and then nominate the lawmaker he thinks has the best chance of forming a government, Al Jazeera reported.
The nominee then has 28 days under the Basic Law, and the president can add two more weeks, as Jewish News explained when President Reuven Rivlin granted Netanyahu such an extension in an earlier round. Al Jazeera put the total at up to 42 days. The new government must then win the Knesset's confidence. No party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so every government is a coalition.
Step three: if the first nominee fails
The law has a fallback. If the nominee cannot form a government, a 21-day period begins in which a majority of at least 61 lawmakers can ask the president to give the task to a specific member, the Israel Democracy Institute explained in a 2019 analysis. If that happens, the chosen lawmaker has 14 days. If no such request is made, or the second attempt fails, the Knesset is dissolved and new elections are set.
That stage was used in April 2020, when then-President Reuven Rivlin declined to extend Benny Gantz's mandate. His office said that without a deal, the task "will return to the Knesset" and "a period of 21 days will begin during which Knesset Members can form a majority," The Algemeiner reported.
Throughout, the current government does not disappear. If no new government is formed, Netanyahu's cabinet stays on as a caretaker, Al Jazeera reported.
The newsroom's timeline
The following dates are the newsroom's own arithmetic from the deadlines above, assuming each stage runs to its limit.
November 4: Official results published, per Al Jazeera.
November 11: An illustrative date for Herzog to assign the task after consulting the parties, one week after publication.
December 23: End of the full 42 days for the first nominee, if the assignment comes on that illustrative date.
January 13: End of the 21-day window for a Knesset majority to name someone else.
Late January 2027: End of the 14 days that lawmaker would have. Failure at that point means the Knesset dissolves and Israel heads to another election.
Coalition talks often take weeks, Al Jazeera noted, and the last round came close to the limit. After the November 1, 2022 election, Herzog gave Netanyahu the mandate and later a 10-day extension that ran to December 21. Netanyahu told Herzog he had formed a government shortly before that midnight deadline, The Times of Israel reported, and the government was sworn in at the end of December. By the newsroom's count, the talks alone ran 50 days from the vote to that deadline.
Why the numbers matter tonight
The gap between the blocs in the final polls was a few seats, and each bloc needs partners to reach 61. That makes the president's consultations, the threshold results of smaller parties and the recommendations of every party potentially decisive. The process also allows a minority government or a rotation deal in which two leaders alternate as prime minister, Al Jazeera noted.
For the day's voting and the fight over polling hours, read our report on record turnout on election day, and for the race going in, see our preview of the vote.
Two Taps News stories summarize reporting and the analysis discussed on Two Taps and Friends. They are not legal advice. Read our standards.
